Card Counting Systems
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WHY NOT ASHORT TERM winning strategy? READ THIS
Posted by The Gambler Ed on 6 July 2005, at 2:11 a.m.
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Hello, I am an amateur blackjack player. I have read many books and done many research regarding blackjack on my own. I would like to point out that almost all the books and statistics regarding blackjack are about "long term" advantage over the casinos. |
These work for the pros, I guess, but for those of us who do not play blackjack every single day, it doesn't really help. Surely counting cards, reading card shuffling(for those who are able to),etc help us make eductaed guesses, but when you play less than 30 - 40 shoe games/ week, is it worth card counting? |
Not really. Playing so few hands, it is impossible to tell whether the player will win or lose. An excited tourist can win thousands on a lucky binge while on the other hand, an experienced card counter can lose thousands. So what is the best strategy to beat the casino if you're not a long term player? Here are a few tips. |
1. Find a consistent table |
--> Generally, if you find a full table and everybody is consistent in their hitting/standing/doubling/splitting strategy, there is a higher chance of winning for the overall table. Don't get me wrong here. I did not say that YOU would have a higher chance. I mean to say that the table in general has a higher chance of players winning. You could still lose, but some lucky Joe Boe on your table could possibily have an amazing run. |
2. Go with your instincts |
--> All those basic strategies that are stated in the book? They are based on millions of computer trials. Is it correct? Yes it is, BUT would you really play millions of hands? I really doubt it. |
If you are not a card counter and you only use basic strategy, find a strategy that best fits you. However, don't always abide by the strategy. For example, if you are playing multiple spots and you have 16 and 15 on both of your hands and the dealer shows a 5, according to basic strategy, you should stand. However, feel free to hit on the 15 and stand on the 16. You might bust on the 15, but if the dealer does not bust, you lose both hands. If you hit the 15 and get a 5 and thus, a 20, and the dealer gets a 10 and a 3, ending up with an 18, at least you will win one of the two hands. |
Now, if you are a card counter, you would know how many 10s are left in the deck compared to the other cards(depends on which counting system you use). Also, you should know how many aces are left in the deck. I used to use the Uston APC and Wong halves but now I simply use Hi-Opt 1 with Ace side counts. In the short run, Hi-Opt 1 comes in more handy than the Uston APC and Wong halves. Don't follow the basic strategy if you are a card counter. Stand on a 12 against the dealer's 2. Hit on your 17 against the dealer's 10 if you get a very low count. |
You see, many people just look at the cards that are dealt out on the deck and whine when a person splits 10s against a dealer's 6,for example.(I split 10s once and everybody at the table groaned and gave me dirty looks) I had a very high count and I knew that there were alot of 10s left in the deck. However, with bad luck, I could have gotten 2s and 3s and risked busting. You need to take risks in short term games. Sometimes you need to alter the betting strategies such as NEVER splitting 10s. |
You see, by splitting the 10s, even if you received low number cards, you have to look into several or more hands ahead. Winning the money on the table immediately is not the issue. It's how much money you win at the end when you GET UP from the table. If you hit the two 10s and received 2, 3 and 3, 3 respectively, you had very bad luck. But who cares? That means more low cards are out of the unused deck. I can explain this system in detail later on. |
3. A whole new betting strategy |
This section took me alot of calculating and practicing on simulations, online and real casinos. This betting strategy is very important. You can practice this on online casinos(practice mode) that shuffles up every hand and you'll see how successful it is. |
I wanted to see how unlucky one can get while playing blackjack. My friend claimed that he lost 7 times in a row but never more. I performed computer simulations and kept track of how many times a player could lose in a 'row'. I ran a 1 million hand simulation with 6 decks, S17, cutting half way down and the worst situation a player lost in a row was 5. I have never lost more than 5 times in a row while playing blackjack so far. |
Since blackjack is a game of strategy but also a game of luck, I tested various luck factors.(It is possible to calculate the estimation of how 'lucky' you would get as mentioned in the above paragraph). Now, for a 1 - 200 dollar limit table, if you bet 2 dollars and lost, next one you bet 4, then 6, then 12, then you bet 24. You need about a 200 dollar bankroll minimum for a 2 dollar table. This sounds TOO simple, right? check this out. If you bet 30 and lost, you bet 60. Then if you lose here again, you do not bet 90. Instead, you drop it to 45, etc( ask me if you want to know more about this. It is quite confusing) |
Anyways, the point is, even if the casino has a 1% or lesser edge over YOU, if you utilize your betting, 1% is nothing. If you do not play enough hands to give the casino that 1% edge, you are fine(for most of you, you won't be playing that many hands anyways) The problem with many average players is that they bet minimum all the way. When they win, they increase their bet but as soon as they lose, they return to minimum bet. This is not the right strategy. The casino will have a higher chance of beating you this way. This is what they want. Card counters bet slightly better, but still according to many books, they state that you shouldn't bet too high to avoid casino heat. Give me a break. If you bet big and you lose big, there is nothing to worry about. For most of us, anyways, we do not have the bankroll to walk in with hundreds of thousands of dollars to blow it on gambling. |
You're probably wondering who I am. I'll tell you a bit about me. You might be a bit dissapointed that I am only a University student. I am 20 years old at a university in Canada and I have been playing blackjack since I was 19. I am a fourth year undergrad student and my major is statistical mathematics and economics(double major), so when I found out about card counting, I got intrigued and started digging into it.( I know I'm young. Thanks to my parents, I knew most of the University math so I was able to skip two and a half years of University) |
I spent days and nights studying the technique and every subject related to beating blackjack but only in vain. After I read about the MIT team's success/loss story, I further researched about team work and I realized that winning is highly possible with team work and hard work ethic. Don't get me wrong. It is possible to win alone, but just alot harder. If you want to be an occasional weekend warrior and you would like to make the best out of it like me, I developed my own method of winning. I always thought that guys who are much smarter than me and better than me at math have already calculated all the odds and developed methods of beating blackjack, but I was wrong. There are still alot of aspects to be explored in blackjack. |
People do not calculate short term winning strategy because it is mathematically impossible to calculate. Anything can happen short term. You can be the best blackjack player in the world and you can still lose it all short term. It's the long term that counts. What I can tell you is that a short term strategy does exist. So far, in less than a year, I have made 80,000 Cdn and believe me, it is alot of money for a student who goes to the casino maybe once or twice a week. I play in casinos around Ontario and some Casinos in the east coast that are over 18. I used all the information I could gather on card counting, betting strategy, splitting, doubling, insurance and whipped it into my own. I've only explained this strategy thoroughly to my two university roommates and only one of them got into blackjack(the other is a poker player on pokertars.com haha). He goes to the casino with me all the time. He plays on the 25 dollar table and so far,he has gone to the casino about 17 times. Currently, he is up 11,000 dollars Cdn. I'm not guaranteeing that you would win for sure, but all I am saying is that this is something different and it's something that I have not been able to find in other books or on the internet. If you want to find out more about this system, just e-mail me. |
Regards, |
Ed |
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