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Re: Short Term/ Long Term

 Posted by Cyrus on 11 May 2003, at 10:43 a.m., in response to Short Term/ Long Term, posted by Gunpowder on 5 May 2003, at 2:54 p.m.



Short term is the period of time when you're more (rather than less) at the mercy of the vagaries of chance. During that period you may find yourself being far away from where the theory told you. You are supposed to be ahead by something like 1% of your total action but you find yourself 10% behind! (Or 10% in front!)


Long term is when your results, at least percentage-wise, start to converge with the theoretical prediction. Standard Deviation is the term for how far from the expectattion you can theoretically veer. In the long term, the Sd is supposed to have less impact than expectation.


Short-term is like rough weather at sea, with huge waves that rock your boat up and down. Long-term is like the same sea, with the difference that yo have reached calmer waters and milder weather; there's less rocking of the boat and a more steady course.


Note that the distinction between short- and long-term, in measure of time, is not and cannot be clearly defined. You are not one day in the short-term and the next day in the long-term! It doesn't happen like that. Nonetheless, there is a formula that connects variance and expectation to give us a theoretically precise measure of time (or hands), after which we are supposedly in the long run (or long term).




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