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Re: No Count Systems
Posted by clown on 1 October 2004, at 6:04 a.m., in response to No Count Systems, posted by Christophe on 15 July 2004, at 5:01 p.m.
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OK I am going to rebuke some of your "systems" here, and then totally contradict myself.
Regarding your penchant for chipping up after three losses, this is a primitive take on the rightfully maligned martingale system of assuming that you can't lose ALL NIGHT, so if you chip up after losing, it's bound to end up alright. What if you lose that bet? You'll have to keep betting high, or even raise your bet more until you win. I have had a 20 hand losing streak. Without counting the cards, the probability of you losing 4 hands in a row is low, around 7% I would think.
HOWEVER... after losing the last three hands, you have the usual 48-49% chance of winning the next hand (assuming your BS is sound). The cards are blissfully unaware of the outcome of the last hand. Still, it's fun to chip up when winning/losing, for a laugh, if you're gambling and enjoying the game, but very silly if you're really there to make money.
Regarding sitting at third base (last box to dealer's right)... that's my favourite spot for two reasons. Firstly, when counting cards, you have seen all the cards that have come out already and have some idea of what the dealer is going to pull, if the count is really high/low. You don't have any advantage over knowing their hole card though. This is only helpful when in Europe or places where there's no hole card, and it can affect your choice regarding whether to take insurance.
Secondly, being on third base is really fun when you correctly hit 12 vs dealer 3, or hit a soft 18, or other things that enrage the superstitious novices at the table. Anything to get them to pack up and leave is a good thing, and any criticism from these jokers is like a badge of honor.
Winning/losing streaks... I know that over time, after having played a million hands of BJ, it doesn't matter about the streaks, they'll even out and you'll be ahead slightly if you're counting cards. I also know that there's no mathematical formulae for predicting the end of a streak. but it can be emotionally debilitating to continue playing after having a horror run at the table, and I do believe that losing streaks are real, not just mathematical anomalies, and after a bunch of dealer BJ's on high counts, it's a real good idea to go to the bar, have a stiff drink, drop ten bucks on roulette number 21 as a defiant walk out bet, and catch the bus of shame home, before you drop another 500 bucks.
No system, except for counting, will work in the long run. But I won't criticise you for being a gambler. I sometimes bet on the greyhounds, just to watch those little dishlickers go for it! Some nights you'll still win a lot of money, but don't give up your day job just yet.
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