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?Problem with K-O Count?

Posted by Albert on Thursday, 18 December 1997, at 11:16 p.m.

I have a problem with putting faith in the K-O Count. Perhaps someone can alleviate
my reservations.

Assume that one plays in an 8-deck game and begins the running count at 0. That
way, the pivot is at 32 and the "Key Count" is at 22. At the Pivot, the player is
supposed to make his/her max bet. At the key count the player is supposed to
increase the bet because that is when the player is supposed to have an advantage.
With the K-O card values, after counting a deck you should end up at +4. Thus after
counting down an 8-deck shoe, you should end up with +32--also the pivot point.
But my problem is here: let's say that the cut card was placed at 1-deck and that it is
about to come out. The count is at +22, thus it is at the key-count. K-O tells you to
up your bet since you have an advantage, but at this point you would have a
DISadvantage. That's because after 8 decks your count should be at +32, and after 7
decks the count should be at +28. The fact that you're at +22 means that 6 more low
value cards have not come out yet. Thus you really don't have an advantage.
Am I understanding this problem correctly? Does K-O perform so well DESPITE this
problem (I ran sims and it is indeed as good as the HiLo and probably better since it
would cause fewer player errors due to true count conversion)? I thought that an
unbalanced count is MOST accurate CLOSEST to the cut card. In this case that
seems opposite. What's going on?


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