Systems Archive 3

Not necessarily..

Posted by Brh on 14 March 1999, at 9:05 p.m., in response to Half-deck is more accurate, posted by Cyrus on 10 March 1999, at 7:47 a.m.

Cyrus,

While estimating the number of half decks is more accurate than just rounding to the number of full decks, in my opinion dividing by half decks has a more fundamental problem.

When computing indices, the final values are rounded to integer values. But if the TC is calculated by half-deck, the index 'bins' are twice as big. Imagine if someone used Hi-Lo, with count per half deck. The indices would be very coarse, insurance would be at +2 (for shoe games), and much opportunity would be lost, as the 'true' value would be 1.6.

More realistically, consider Halves and Halves(x2). Sure, if you only have a published set of Halves indices, and you want to multiply by 2 to avoid the fractions, then you will have to divide by half-decks. But if you have a simulator which can produce new indices, you have twice the fine structure if you divide by full decks.

The only drawback is that deck estimation itself still needs to be accurate, that is you will need to divide by (say) 4.5 decks. One way around that is to multiply by conveniently placed reciprocals, ie 2.5 decks = 0.4, 3.3 decks = 0.3, 4.5=0.22 etc.. Actually, half deck estimation is not all that important until the end of the shoe, so there isnt really much need to divide by horrible numbers like 6.5.

Cheers, Brett.

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