Systems Archive 3
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Re: need help
Posted by Charles on 27 September 1999, at 2:15 a.m., in response to need help, posted by j on 25 August 1999, at 5:48 p.m.
My simulations show that this simple Hi-Lo system is not only the simplest, but also the best that I have tried against certain house rules. (See my recent posting at the top of the page).
As to when you should raise, these are my findings:
Use running counts - do not bother adjusting them to the remaining decks. Adjusting is tricky and most players don't do a good job of it. It is hard to estimate just how many decks are left in the shoe. My simulations show that you can dispose of this tiresome exercise without being disadvantaged.
Insuring will lose you money in the long run, except for counts above +10. Insuring at +10 always loses money in the long run, but will make you money from counts of +11 and above. (I am not sure if my simulator insures on the basis of the count at the time insurance is open, or on the basis of the count at the start of that betting round - don't you hate that?!)
Do not start betting at a +1 count. (Remember, however, that I am talking here about unadjusted running count.) Wait until the count at the start of the betting round is higher, probably as high as +6 or more. This will give you an overall advantage of .5% - .7% advantage over the House, depending on the exact house rules in a multi-deck game. My tests are all 8 deck, cassino shuffles, but random shuffles show the very same results, no difference. This means that you can ignore "clumping" theories and myths.
If you start betting at, say +6 and stop betting as soon as the count slips to or below +5, you will play only about 10% of the time. If you bet only on +9 and higher, you will bet only 5% of the time, but your advantage will increase another .2% - .3%.
All the above assumed a flat betting system. You can go for a more aggressive betting system, however, one which increases your advantage over the House to well above 1%, probably 1.5% or higher. This is to bet IN PROPORTION TO YOUR POSITIVE COUNT. This means, betting 1 unit at the count of +6, 2 units at the count of +7, 3 units at the count of +8, and so on, until a maximum of 10 units. The risk with this, according to my sims is that you can still run into long losing runs and your minimum bankroll can slip into thousands of dollars deficit before your advantage starts biting into the House and recovers your initial losses to come out with an impressive profit in the long run. This more aggressive strategy, then, calls for many thousands of dollars bank roll (possibly as high as tens of thousands of dollars if your unit is, say $25 or higher). Flat betting will make less profit, but seems to require significantly less outlay, as minimum bankroll does rarely drop into the negative, even if you start with only $1000 and your basic unit is set at, say $10.
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