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Posted by T-Hopper on 22 December 2000, at 1:51 p.m., in response to Re: Variable fraction betting, posted by T-Hopper on 22 December 2000, at 1:41 p.m.

If you want to try a coin toss simulation like I did, the goal should be to maximize the expected win per career, where a career is an arbitrarily long sequence of trials. If you go broke, the result for that "career" is -StartingBank, otherwise it is the net win after n hands. You can forgot about variance in career results when working from this high a level, since fluctuations only matter because they may cause you to lower your bets. In other words, mathematically you are better off having a 50% chance of making $1,000,001 than a 100% chance of making $500,000 over the course of your life. If you feel otherwise, you have at least a mildly risk-averse utility function.


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