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Re: Need more $?
Posted by Victor on 10 February 2002, at 10:39 p.m., in response to Re: Need more $?, posted by Harry on 9 February 2002, at 6:40 p.m.
Dear Harry,
Thanks for your answer.
It its quite commendable that you want to avoid me going into troubles.
I do have, however, a couple of ponits regarding your advice:
1) If this were really gambling, with no matemathical trends, Casinos could loose money, the same way they win, but as you know, in the end, they always win money... why? if this is gambling, they should risk also a lot and they could loose lot of money, if this WERE gambling, but the reality is that any game, roulette, BJ, anything has a matematical edge that of course is on the side of the casino and that is why as long as you keep playing, the money will be on their side. Now, this edge, using counting metods and simulation programs enough powerfull so as to try it 300.000.000 hands, gives you, as you put all the rules of the local casino, the bet spread, the amount of decks and the playnig strategy, it shows you your actual % of winning and if you run serious test you will see, that, for example, with 2 decks and soft rules and no control, you could destroy the casino. This is why, as time went by, more decks were introduced into the game.
Do you think that if this were really gambling, they would be so worried about counters? Why do you think a counter gets barred from a casino? why to loose a client? Becasue you can turn that edge to your side and at that point, the long you play, the long you will win at the end.
Now, all this factors, in a closed game like BJ, is so calculable, that you actually know exactly your actual edge, your possibility to bank rupt, etc, with no errors.
In this particular case, I'm trying to face the most difficult situation (8decks) with the toughest rules (NO DAS, 1 split, DD on 10, 11, No surrender) but at the same time, with the possibility to use whatever strategy or device I like. And it is quite difficult to find a simulator for a machine that can count ALL the cards and to know the actual edge. And that is why I got in comunicatoin in this forum.
When saying the possibilities of winning, the bankroll, etc, you ALWAYS refer to a matematical problem that can be studied and resolved with a perfect number. Where do you think that the Basic Strategy comes from? from guessing? no. Run any serious simulator, and you will see that without counting, BS is what the simulator will finally find as the best posible move.
I tryed Hi.OPT II, with the rules above mentioned, with spread o 1-20, to see how bad the bankroll could get and guees what.... the bankroll got to $-37.000 in its worse moment, and then I run it for 40.000.000 hands. So the advice that Hoopper gave me, was correct... with this rules, $25.000 is not enough. He just said the truth. And he is linking me to sites and strategies where maybe we will be able to avoid this problem, by using better betting strategies, or counting machines. After doing that research, and putting the algorythm in the simulator, we will see what happens, and if there is no way at all to beat safely this rules, well, I'm not going to crash against a wall... you can count on that...
I do appreciate your advice of not jumping into the pool totally blind, but I would like to know if you tested the rules I said in my comunications, and got to the point that 25.000 could be more than enough against such a terrible rules. Hoopper is not saying that the bankroll will make me win. He is saying that with this rules, it is not enough to avoid bakrupt point with $25.000. A matemathical truth.
Please, let me know what kind of edge could I take from the best algorythm you know, so we can see if we can finally beat this dealer!
Again, thanks a lot for your help.
Victor
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