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Re: SD Bombshell: Playing Strategy Is Everything

Posted by T. Hopper on 14 May 2002, at 3:35 p.m., in response to Single Deck Bombshell: Playing Strategy Is Everything, posted by T. Hopper on 12 May 2002, at 6:19 p.m.

The charts above illustrate the win rate using the T-H Expert system at various levels of penetration, as expressed in terms of the maximum bet. Four different bet spreads are shown: unlimited, 1-4, 1-2, and flat bet. The conditions are single deck, 2 players at the table, dealer hits soft 17, double any first two cards, and no splitting of 10s.

With very deep penetration, betting according to the count makes up only a small fraction of the player's overall edge. The value of using a bet spread in these conditions is a large reduction of risk, not an increase in the win rate. It could be argued that most single deck games only offer about 50% penetration, where bet variation is a much larger fraction of the overall edge. A case can be made for the primary value of playing strategy variation in average games as well. First, these charts used a simple aggressive strategy of betting the maximum with any edge. Waiting for higher counts or using any sort of cover betting will reduce the value of the bet spread in terms of the maximum bet. Second, in this simulation there was one other player at the table, with hidden hole cards and double down cards. With more players at the table, or more cards exposed during the round, the value of playing strategy variation will increase. And finally, the system used here has only about a 70% playing efficiency. A PE of 90% or greater is possible using multiple side counts.

So in summary, single deck players should bet according to the count mainly to reduce risk, and a strong playing strategy with many index numbers is recommended to make the most money possible in these games.


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