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What the experts say

Posted by Cyrus on 23 July 1999, at 4:32 p.m., in response to Re: About that deuce, posted by Richard Harvey on 23 July 1999, at 2:30 p.m.

Richard,

You wrote "Your theory on peeking at the burn card is interesting, and, once again, if it works for you, fine. It doesn't make sense to me, however, that knowing one card will enable you to change your whole strategy."

I didn't say changing "the whole strategy". I merely used the example to show the effect that the removal of each card rank has on the player's expectation. We can see that one deuce gone makes the remaining pack more favorable for us than seeing a 7 go. (My example was not purely theoretical: if you do see a 5 being burned in a single deck game, you'd be well advised to bet bigger off-the-top).

"Re-read Lawrence Revere's book "Playing Blackjack As A Business," if you want to see early evidence of what I am saying. There are one or two charts that speak volumes about the 2 and the 7, among other cards."

Richard, you've wrote that we should fear the dealer's deuce more than a 7. Lawrence Revere's charts (for example in pp 130-131) show the opposite. We should prefer a dealer upcard of 2 over a 7. [I believe you refer to the quote by Revere "When the count is very negative, the best card the dealer can have for the player is a seven" (p 132). But this applies only in highly negative situations, in the order of -15! In all other cases, the charts show that we much rather see a deuce as an upcard rather than a 7]

You wrote "David Sklansky's new book seems to agree with me on playing the two in negative card count situations."

So do I! In Sklansky talks Blackjack, he advises new counters to Hit hard 15v2 in "highly negative [HiLo] decks" - there's nothing peculiar about that, except maybe the fact that a player should not be playing in such highly negative situations, in the first place, but that's a beginner's book (the exact play is Stand for any HiLo TC -6 or higher, otherwise Hit). However, this still doesn't prove that the deuce should be feared more than cards like a 7, in the vast majority of cases, i.e. moderately negative, neutral or positive counts.

Your premise is unfounded and, so far, unsupported. Citing "personal experience" is not enough to refute mathematics & simulation.

--Cyrus

Responses

• Re: What the experts say - Richard Harvey - 23 July 1999, at 6:16 p.m.
  • Book preview? - Cyrus - 24 July 1999, at 1:16 a.m.
    • Re: Book preview? - Richard Harvey - 24 July 1999, at 9:21 a.m.
      • Re: Book preview? - T-Hopper - 24 July 1999, at 11:43 a.m.
• Re: What the experts say - ditto - 26 July 1999, at 10:02 a.m.
  • Re: What the experts say - T-Hopper - 26 July 1999, at 10:45 a.m.
    • Re: What the experts say - ditto - 26 July 1999, at 11:33 a.m.
  • HiLo 15v2 - Cyrus - 26 July 1999, at 1:05 p.m.
    • Re: HiLo 15v2 - ditto - 28 July 1999, at 11:13 a.m.
      • 1d & 2d, Stand -5 or higher [nt] - Cyrus - 28 July 1999, at 2:40 p.m.

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