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A little nutshell

Posted by Cyrus on 20 May 1998, at 1:03 p.m., in response to Re: Scared of Ideas?, posted by JJ on 20 May 1998, at 10:55 a.m.

Jeu de Hazard!

When you say luck, you mean random events. Roulette is random. BJ isn't. BJ is a game where the chances of what happens next are dependent on what happened previously. Unlike craps, roulette etc. The wheel has no memory but the deck of cards has : if for example what remains at the end of a shoe are just tens and aces, the player has a far better chance of winning money.

 

It is almost impossible to duplicate exactly the same technique, method, or strategy. BJ is a dynamic game and no two situations can be EXACTLY the same and the RESULTS will be different.

Calculating all the possible combinations of hands may be a huge task but it has been done. The effect each card's value has on the player's chances (=expectation) as this card is dealt (=removed from the remaining cards) has also been calculated. That's all we can do. Calculate and simulate every possible outcome and take the course that gives us the best chance. Unless we opt to simply pray for the best.

By giving a value to the composition of the remaining cards (that's all the info you'll ever have by counting in this game), counting tells you who has an advantage in every situation (you or the dealer), how much that advantage is and what is your proper strategy. This strategy dictates how much it is appropriate to bet for your next hand and how to play your actual hand.

Short term, anything is possible. Even hitting your twenty and getting an ace. But the math is all we have to calculate the proper strategy in the long run. Play properly enough hands and the law of big numbers kicks in.

There are lots of worthy books out there which can guide anyone to understand the logic, adopt a counting system and guide you through the proper playing behavior. Which means avoid being kicked out for being a counter!

 

You cannot win in this game by merely counting cards. Other strategies?

Sorry, I have no other proven way. Do you?

 

If you are saying that math and science, combined with those OTHER things you DO that makes you a winner, then I say you are making more sense.

The only 'other things' have to do with playing behavior. Which comes through these same traits of character that non-counters usually peddle, like discipline, a cool head, the ability to put up a front, a working brain. These things alone cannot do it. Coupled with counting, they give a player his best chance of beating the game.

 

people are prone to their individual weaknesses it is almost impossible for them to duplicate exactly the same technique, method, or strategy

Well, that's the bad part. Counting is very difficult. Consistently winning money through counting is tough. Few people can do it. If you manage to be a disciplined, competent counter you'll enjoy no more than 1.5% of an edge over the house. And it is still very difficult to withstand the swings of fortune this very small edge carries.

 

Cyrus


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