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LET'S SEE IF YOU CAN STAND WITH ME ON THIS ONE...

Posted by Robert on 29 May 1998, at 4:08 p.m.

To all the idiots who have trash me: now shut up and let the big boys discuss. It is Voodoo here so let's talk about a negative EV game...

Baccarat is the game, 8-decks shoes. Rule can be post on request.

My mouth will stay close on the B/P game, however:

We want to win on the tie bet but EV is -14.35%.

A count can reverse this? Likely so; some of you are already aware of it...

The count is:

4-10-J-Q-K: value +1 (don't have my notes with me, I could correct later the card-value; the concept is correct however)

1-3-5-7-9: value -1

Why so? Simple: if you remove all the ODD cards of 8-deck, all the 2 and 3 hands total can only be EVEN. I'm sure karpov, gehrig, bootleg and friends are already lost but I don't care; just think about it a day or so... I'm talking to mathboy and smartass here. With only EVEN cards, the likelyhood of a tie is around 20-25%; with a payoff of 8 to 1, edge is near 100%... Yes, yes this is mainly end of the shoe play here and it never happen that way. It is just a theory; a winning theory. Casinos are already aware of this; that's why the limit on tie bet is always a lot lower than on B/P bet; that's why they have a cut card and burn cards; don't go think I just give away the gold mine, it is not.

But:

I'm looking for count-trigger to "announce" favorable situation thru the deck, let's say half-deck, a bit the same that what you call wonging in/out, but for baccarat. We would need to know at what kind of "true count" all thru the deck the bet become favorable; we need a simulation here and some permutation analysis. I did the analysis, but my figure are inaccurate; too much parameters to handle; I'm working on paper... So, I put everything to trash and now come here to see who really want to work to win...

It is a serious website? Full of serious and knowledgeable peoples? Show me.

Robert


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