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Re:Nice series of posts, but a question, please

Posted by Bootlegger on 3 June 1998, at 7:03 p.m., in response to Baccarat (part 2), posted by Robert on 3 June 1998, at 10:09 a.m.

Robert, I enjoyed your series of posts on baccarat. I do have a question or two. I'm not sure how you arrived at your conclusions on the percentage of odd hands vs. even hands. It appears that you are counting 10, J, Q, and K as even cards when in actuality they are not. From what I know about baccarat, those cards actually have no value. For instance, if you have a five and a ten, the value of your hand is 5. If you have a ten and a queen, the value of your hand is 0, neither even nor odd. In effect, these cards are neutral. Given that, I am not sure your estimate of the numbers of even and odd hands is accurate. It seems to include hands that actually total 0, such as two "ten" valued cards, or combinations like A-9, 2-8, 3-7, 4-6, and 5-5.

There are 86,320 two card combinations in eight decks. Subtracting the neutral totals mentioned above, here is how they would break out (O = odd, E = even, N = neutral):

O/O = 12,720 - 3072 neutral hands = 9648 even hands

O/N = 20,480 odd hands

O/E = 20,480 odd hands

E/E = 8,128 - 2048 neutral hands = 6080 even hands

E/N = 16,384 even hands

N/N = 8,128 neutral hands

You have a total of 13,248 neutral hands, 32,112 even hands and 40,960 odd hands. The percentages break down thusly:

Odd = 47.45%

Even = 37.20%

Neutral = 15.35%

I didn't do the three card combos, but it seems to me your numbers are flawed.

I didn't do this as an attack on you, Robert. I just wanted to figure it out for myself and those are the numbers I arrived at. I could be wrong, and I guess I'll leave it up to any math weenie who wants to figure it out if I am wrong or not. However, if your numbers are wrong, it seems to me that the rest of the system that is based on those numbers may have some flaws as well. At any rate, thanks for making me use my noggin for something other than an airhole. The exercise did it good.


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