Voodoo Archive 1

[ Read Responses | Return to the Index ]
[ Previous | Previous in Thread | Next in Thread | Next ]

It's not a shoe, it's a basket

Posted by Cyrus on 3 June 1998, at 11:47 p.m., in response to Think about this..., posted by Robert on 3 June 1998, at 7:09 p.m.

I understand what you are trying to achieve but please take this into account:

The cards are coming out of a shoe (in multideck BJ, now the prevalent type) for the dealer's convenience and to prohibit cheating. That shoe gives the impression of sequences (ie streaks, clumps, rhythm etc).

Now, it's true that casino shuffling procedure does not create a truly random shoe (Diaconis et al) but it is impossible for the player to predict either what the next cards coming out will be (sequence trackers shoot for part of that) and it is impossible to predict if a player or a dealer streak is due. You see those 'streaks' after the fact, like when I glance up to a roulette board and see ten reds in a row and daydream about knowing that beforehand. So what if you see the'edge' of the good cards coming out? No way in hell they'll keep on coming out for sure.

It has been deifined (Wong) that the relation between the outcomes of one hand and the next hand is statistically negligible. For all practrical purposes,and even for the best counter in the world working the tables today (probably T-Hopper), the dealer deals the cards out of a basket, where they are randomly picked up from.

To conclude: If you have a TC of +4 in a 6-deck game you have approximately a 1.5% advantage, on the basis on the composition of the cards remaining to come out. Nothing else. You have no idea in hell if the 'good' cards will come out right now, if they will fall on your hand, if they will be dealt to the dealer or if they will remain sadistically stuck behind the cut card. You can only bet according to the TC and your bankroll and wait for the long term to kick-in. [Well, mid term, since you know what we all are in the long term...]

Responses

• Re: It's not a shoe, it's a basket - BJ - 4 June 1998, at 1:11 a.m.
  • Re: It's not a shoe, it's a basket - jpdave13 - 4 June 1998, at 9:59 a.m.
    • Re: % Return - T-Hopper - 4 June 1998, at 12:24 p.m.
      • Re: % Return - jpdave13 - 4 June 1998, at 1:05 p.m.
• Re: It's not a shoe, it's a basket - T-Hopper - 4 June 1998, at 1:14 a.m.
• Re: It's not a shoe, it's a basket - jpdave13 - 4 June 1998, at 9:55 a.m.
• Re: It's not a shoe, it's a basket - Soma - 4 June 1998, at 5:24 p.m.
• Re: It's not a shoe, it's a basket - Robert - 4 June 1998, at 6:22 p.m.

The Voodoo Archive 1 is maintained with WebBBS 2.24.060398.