Voodoo Archive 3
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Re: Progressions and Expectation?
Posted by Green Baize Vampire on 9 July 1999, at 4:55 p.m., in response to Progressions and Expectation?, posted by I_Dunno on 7 July 1999, at 10:35 p.m.
Think about it, a player with an unlimited bankroll, playing at a "no limit" BJ table, with a martingale system, i.e. doubling bet after each loss, how could he ever lose in the long run? Notice also the BS player (playing without any kind of progression system) still has the same negative expectation, since neither change effects him at all.
That is not really the problem. The problem is that he is gaining a very small return on investment.
A syndicate could form. with a capital of a few billion dollars and probably never come close to losing its capital during the lifetime of its members, given that you can change up to a higher-limit table if you want mid-streak, or arrange a much higher table max privately. This would assume they played against a low vig game with a reasonable chance of success on each trial (bank at baccarat would be ideal). But its returns on investment would be so pathetic inflation would outstrip it several times over.
This is a form of gambling favourable to nobody.
Note that a player with an unlimited bankroll cannot lose in the long run period whatever strategy he pursues. A player with an infinite bankroll in competition with an opponent with a finite bankroll (the casinos) must eventually win the finite player's bankroll.
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