A book by David McDowell
Foreword by Michael Dalton
Cover art by Abigail Kamelhair

CONTENTS | FOREWORD | BACK COVER | ERRATA | REVIEWS | CRITIQUE

ORDER THE BOOK

Tables and Figures. 10

Acknowledgments. 12

Foreword by Michael Dalton. 15

CHAPTER 1 Ace Prediction. 17

Doing Shuffle Analyses. 19

Doing Computer Simulations. 20

Using the Expectation Formula. 21

Other Books. 22

Published References. 23

"How I Invented Ace Prediction" -- Ed Thorp. 30

CHAPTER 2 Non-Random Shuffling. 32

Permutations by Cutting and Shuffling. 32

Thorp's Non-Random Shuffling Analysis. 34

Epstein's Analysis of the Imperfect Shuffle. 37

Casino Card Shuffles: How Random Are They?. 39

Information Loss in Card Shuffling. 41

A Man of Mystery: Charles T. Jordan. 43

CHAPTER 3 Analyzing Shuffles. 45

Applying Thorp's Shuffling Analysis. 45

Broken Sequences. 54

Counting the Breaks. 55

Probability of Broken Sequences. 59

Broken Sequences by Computer. 60

Effect of Plugs, Strips and Box Cuts. 61

An Uncut Diamond. 64

CHAPTER 4 Exploiting Shuffles. 66

Applying Hannum's Shuffling Analysis. 66

Simple Tests for Randomness. 69

Mapping Shuffle Weaknesses. 72

How Reliable Are the Weaknesses?. 74

Predicting Exact Positions of Cards. 76

The Gambler King. 78

CHAPTER 5 Locating Aces. 80

Ace Location. 80

Ace Slugs. 81

A Two-Pass Combo Shuffle. 86

The Greek Syndicate. 88

CHAPTER 6 Predicting Aces. 90

Card Prediction. 90

Applying Epstein's Prediction Theorem.. 93

The Prediction Problem Solved. 95

A Prediction Rule. 97

How to Memorize Key Cards. 98

Steering the Aces. 99

False Key Cards. 100

Pointer Cards. 102

Putting It All Together. 105

The Curse of Wang. 107

CHAPTER 7 Mathematical Expectation. 109

Beat the Dealer. 109

Value of an Ace as First Card. 109

How Often Does the Ace "Hit the Money"?. 112

Skilled versus Unskilled Predictors. 113

When the Dealer Gets the Ace. 114

Mathematical Expectation. 114

Predictability of Casino Shuffles. 116

The Count of Ciampino. 117

CHAPTER 8 How Much to Bet 119

Expected Return. 119

Risk. 121

Optimal Bet Size. 125

"Do Not Forget". 127

Appendices. 129

Appendix A: Shuffling Terminology. 130

Appendix B: Card Movements in Perfect Shuffles. 131

Appendix C: Mean of Di 133

Appendix D: c2 Test 135

Appendix E: Kendall's Concordance Coefficient 136

Appendix F: Kruskal-Wallis Test 137

Index. 138

References. 145