Blackjack Ace PredictionBlackjack Ace Prediction
Copyright 2004  ISBN: 1-879712-10-5  MSRP: $19.95

A book by David McDowell
Foreword by Michael Dalton
Cover art by Abigail Kamelhair

CONTENTS | FOREWORD | BACK COVER | ERRATA | REVIEWS | CRITIQUE

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[Excerpt] Table of Contents

Tables and Figures. 10

Acknowledgments. 12

About the Cover Art 14

Foreword by Michael Dalton. 15

 

CHAPTER 1 Ace Prediction. 17

                Doing Shuffle Analyses. 19

                Doing Computer Simulations. 20

                Using the Expectation Formula. 21

                Other Books. 22

                Published References. 23

                "How I Invented Ace Prediction" -- Ed Thorp. 30

 

CHAPTER 2 Non-Random Shuffling. 32

                Permutations by Cutting and Shuffling. 32

                Thorp's Non-Random Shuffling Analysis. 34

                Epstein's Analysis of the Imperfect Shuffle. 37

                Casino Card Shuffles: How Random Are They?. 39

                Information Loss in Card Shuffling. 41

                A Man of Mystery: Charles T. Jordan. 43

 

CHAPTER 3 Analyzing Shuffles. 45

                Applying Thorp's Shuffling Analysis. 45

                Broken Sequences. 54

                Counting the Breaks. 55

                Probability of Broken Sequences. 59

                Broken Sequences by Computer. 60

                Effect of Plugs, Strips and Box Cuts. 61

                An Uncut Diamond. 64

 

CHAPTER 4 Exploiting Shuffles. 66

                Applying Hannum's Shuffling Analysis. 66

                Simple Tests for Randomness. 69

                Mapping Shuffle Weaknesses. 72

                How Reliable Are the Weaknesses?. 74

                Predicting Exact Positions of Cards. 76

                The Gambler King. 78

 

CHAPTER 5 Locating Aces. 80

                Ace Location. 80

                Ace Slugs. 81

                A Stepladder Shuffle. 84

                A Two-Pass Combo Shuffle. 86

                The Greek Syndicate. 88

 

CHAPTER 6 Predicting Aces. 90

                Card Prediction. 90

                Applying Epstein's Prediction Theorem.. 93

                The Prediction Problem Solved. 95

                A Prediction Rule. 97

                How to Memorize Key Cards. 98

                Steering the Aces. 99

                False Key Cards. 100

                Pointer Cards. 102

                Putting It All Together. 105

                The Curse of Wang. 107

 

CHAPTER 7 Mathematical Expectation. 109

                Beat the Dealer. 109

                Value of an Ace as First Card. 109

                How Often Does the Ace "Hit the Money"?. 112

                Skilled versus Unskilled Predictors. 113

                When the Dealer Gets the Ace. 114

                Mathematical Expectation. 114

                Predictability of Casino Shuffles. 116

                The Count of Ciampino. 117

 

CHAPTER 8 How Much to Bet 119

                Expected Return. 119

                Risk. 121

                Optimal Bet Size. 125

                "Do Not Forget". 127

 

Appendices. 129

                Appendix A: Shuffling Terminology. 130

                Appendix B: Card Movements in Perfect Shuffles. 131

                Appendix C: Mean of Di 133

                Appendix D: c2 Test 135

                Appendix E: Kendall's Concordance Coefficient 136

                Appendix F: Kruskal-Wallis Test 137

 

Index. 138

References. 145

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